Long-term low interest rates and peripheral capital return

Long-term low interest rates and peripheral capital return, the American economy will produce the cyclical rise, this is a normal phenomenon, and milder cycle length depends on the progress of American inflation, if the United States in economic ascending process can effectively control inflation, the U.S. economy milder will be a long period phenomenon, if inflation situation ascending faster, the United States economic milder will be a period of phenomenon, difficult to keep more than one year, and so on the us economy of changes in temperature measurement points, should be put in to the future level of inflation on the monitor.

Estimate the American economy third, fourth quarter economy to a good possibility is high. In view of the American economy further stabilising, developing economies in the rest of this year's few months will remain relatively stable, the debt problems will have a break, is expected to the third and fourth quarter inflation will grow faster, it will be the world's common phenomenon, but for China but pressure multiplier.

In the American economy warms up in the cycle, China's economy have been mixed, joy is export will be increased, which will help the employment, economic downturn speed will be able to control, sorrow is domestic inflation always running in the fast lane, even if I have slow, is only a short cycle behavior, once peripheral inflation rise, domestic inflation situation is more serious, controlling inflation problem still is the top priority.

Domestic local debt problem is heavy, this make the tax rate is greater than the long-term growth of GDP, the government use of tax to make up for the local public finance in the hole, but this policy long-term, brings to the society's pressure is more and more big, plus the repeated impact inflation, China's economic problem will stack to a peak, so in the United States a new round of economic milder cycle, China's economic problems with complicated always inflation mixed together, from this Angle for, china-us economic evaluation to the key point will fall in inflation problem.

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