Thursday, September 27, 2012

Secondly, apple has iPhone, samsung have Galaxy

Secondly, apple has iPhone, samsung have Galaxy, nokia has Lumia, the latest statistics show that apple has just released within a week iPhone5 sales reached 5 million department, however, because the supply problem, the shipments did not achieve the expected; Samsung GalaxyS III released in three months sold 20 million department, before the end of the year is expected to reach 30 million department; Nokia's Lumia series last quarter sold 4 million department. The author in this want to say, the top three representatives of the ecological system manufacturers not only the terminal shipments to have the bottom line, and their respective representative terminal, is our domestic often say "the star terminal". In this respect, our domestic manufacturers still does not have a match with them. In this the author should add that, even if is based on Microsoft WP system nokia Lumia shipments quarter reached 4 million ministry, also failed to escape the fate of the loss.


The third is applied. Or the latest statistics, apple App Store of the number of applications for 700000, Google Google Play for 675000, Microsoft WP for 150000. Phase comparison, our manufacturers which no one can achieve this order of magnitude, the need of special note is, although Microsoft WP have about 150000 applications, but its ecological system in the global market share of only 3.5%. And the latest forecast says, by the end of this year, apple and Google iOS Android system will account for global intelligent mobile phone market share of around 98%.


In this maybe someone will say, the author such comparative beneath fair, after all, apple, Google and Microsoft's ecological system development for many years, and our independent operating system from zero beginning, this sounds very reasonable, but it from a side, reflects our enterprise lack of foresight, it is also leading to in today's market pattern has set under the general trend, if we do independent operating system, whether like, in this kind of actual situation on measuring and comparing, in order to draw our odds.

Perhaps is the cool united market share success

Perhaps is the cool united market share success, maybe the Google crack down on ali cloud OS stimulation, the cool league these four companies, huawei, zte have recent announced to do independent mobile Phone operating system, then has let the industry and market almost forget China unicom to push my new walter Phone, I believe that China mobile's OPhone would once again have the surface.


In fact as early as in the PC era, Chinese enterprise will claim to do independent of the operating system against Microsoft in the PC field Windows monopoly, even to the point of view of national security. At that time the scene in so far. With various kinds of open source Linux is the core of the so-called domestic operating system blustery, relevant government department also add fuel to the fire, and even take the government departments purchasing PC mandatory installed, but result how? Those who was well-known domestic operating system had pulled out of the market. But today the author see is with the PC market rise up domestic operating system situation have in intelligent mobile phone operating system to be repeated.


The author in this not to predict the rise of independent domestic mobile phone operating system's future will be how, just want to simple lists the current mobile phone market the mainstream operating system, or more specifically, the operating system of the ecological system, as a measure of we do autonomous mobile phone operating system also missing???????


As is known to all, IDC statistics, last quarter samsung intelligent mobile phone sales for 50.2 million department, apple iPhone sales is 26 million department, nokia for 10.2 million department, they were ranked in intelligent mobile phone market share of the top three, and is apple iOS, Google Android, nokia Symbian/Microsoft WP independent ecological system of representative, and this global intelligent mobile phone three ecological systems of three manufacturers took the global intelligent mobile phone market around 86% market share, the only difference is that apple and samsung is to earn money, and nokia is loss. Thus the author thinks that, as an independent ecosystem survival, in terminal bottom line is at least quarterly in must level according to the enterprise or system. By contrast, China claims to do independent mobile phone operating system vendors without a terminal shipments can reach the bottom line.

In fact in nokia and HTC ravel on who is the best

In fact in nokia and HTC ravel on who is the best Windwos Phone8 mobile phone, samsung to be worthy of the name Windows Phone8 starting manufacturers. Here is not to say that Microsoft favoritism samsung, from samsung in the Android camp before came back from behind, and to the global mobile phone and intelligent mobile phone market share first look, samsung Ativ with independent brands and all Windows8 (including intelligent mobile phone, tablet PC, PC) products into Windows camp, in intelligent mobile phone market Windows Phone8 camp direct impact is nokia and HTC. In this sense, nokia and HTC instead of arguing about who is the best Windows Phone8 mobile phone, as each want to good countermeasure, to guard against samsung this fearsome opponent. Especially nokia, don't repeat itself HTC in Android camp is samsung's brace of tragedy. Besides samsung have released early Galaxy S III market performance not common bottom, into the Windows Phone8 faction worry-free, even is the icing on the cake, it is more likely to play the potential market.


The last is MOTOROLA. And samsung, nokia, HTC, compared to MOTOROLA smartphone product release is the most boring, and almost a perfunctory way previous generation upgrade products. Association to formally incorporated into Google door this year after the global scope massive layoffs and closing office, its mobile phone business compression of power has all show. This kind of circumstance, don't say to change what the market competition pattern, is the fate of its own how to have it is difficult to determine.


A combination of the analysis, the so-called industry to look forward to in this year can change the intelligent mobile phone market competition pattern September new product release will not make market pattern change, on the contrary, it may indicate this year ahead of the intelligent mobile phone market war ended in advance, apple, samsung poles of the pattern will continue, and even has the expanded tendency. While the other manufacturers should remain in the edge of life and death hovering.

But from the quarter before see

But from the quarter before see, functional mobile phone price and are present Symbian shipments plunged trend, this virtually increased Lumia pressure and compression the nokia product transformation of the time window. And in view of the Lumia before the market competitiveness and performance, it is hard to inherit from internal business atrophy caused by the pressure, if it continues, likely the result is that three pieces of mobile phone business are down, at the appointed time, nokia, don't say anything to win, I am afraid it is difficult to survive even. So now decided to nokia future is not Lumia, but functional mobile phones and reason of Symbian.

In addition to nokia besides, HTC also released in September based on Windows Phone8 smartphone Windows Phone 8 x and 8 s. And nokia situation similar, HTC into since this year, the shipments, revenue and profit is in the state of decline. So it is also hope that through Windows Phone 8 x and 8 s to reverse the situation. Therefore, HTC and nokia also is who is the best Windows Phone8 erupted into mobile phone broke out. But only from its appearance like nokia's Lumia already faint show HTC for Windows Phone8 casual, or rather lack of confidence. After all, as Android camp before the boss in less than a year of time be samsung alternative or substantially beyond the shadow still linger. And this this hair force Microsoft camp, had not, Microsoft's strategic cooperation partner is nokia, this kind of circumstance, HTC fore chance to have how old?

Still have a bit to be sure, ali's high-profile and their own strength to one, also is the one of the main causes of flap. Think about it, with the Wall Street journal about China's independent Android operating system, this slogan itself is very contradictory, besides ali cloud issued a year, shipments will then 2 million department. Even if our shipments and can achieve the somebody else Android 1/10, put this is still some bottom spirit? Low-key strives for the survival, I'm afraid this is the Google and ali dispute to the Chinese enterprise best enlightenment. Even if is hype is also need a certain strength.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

So the next is when Google Android income reached $10 billion

So the next is when Google Android income reached $10 billion, Microsoft in intelligent mobile phone market will earn? If, in accordance with the current Google Android equipment quantities for 500 million (in fact did not achieve this number) and daily activation quantity still for 1 million calculation, in the next two years, the Android system smartphone will add 500 million, is also the Android system according to the mobile phone 365 million department, Microsoft get authorization revenue of $3.168 billion calculation (100 million department Android mobile phone to Microsoft bring revenue for 868 million dollars, and the other in the second quarter of this year, the statistics show that Android mobile phone shipments in the 99 million department, Microsoft get revenue of $792 million, the two averaging, namely every 100 million department Android mobile phone will give Microsoft bring related licensing fees at about $800 million)

So the future growth of 500 million department Android mobile phone to Microsoft will bring about $4 billion of revenue. And Microsoft has won $3.168 billion in, Microsoft's revenue nearly $7 billion, $10 billion and Google compared also sent around $3 billion. But if the future of close to 2 years, still this year 12 million in accordance with the Microsoft Windows Phone sales department for revenue of $736 million, a total of $1.472 billion. At this time, Microsoft smartphone get from the total revenue will for 9.2 billion dollars, and Google Android $10 billion total revenue gap at $800 million, which, of course, or in Microsoft Windows Phone mobile Phone sales maintained at 12 million department/year, but who are clear, in the next two years, Microsoft's Windows Phone sales may not just 12 million department, this means that, as long as Microsoft in the next two years, with an average annual sales in 18 million department (quarterly sales in 4.5 million), it could be in total revenue more than Google Android, or at least and Google Android equal terms (from revenue point of view).

Meanwhile, foreign Seeking Alpha through analysis it is believed

Meanwhile, foreign Seeking Alpha through analysis it is believed, Microsoft their Windows Phone in fiscal 2012 to Microsoft bring income for 736 million dollars. So the computational words, Microsoft in the mobile Internet smartphone market, from rival Android income is their Windows Phone 4.3 times more. The two combined for 3.9 billion dollars. That is Microsoft in intelligent mobile phone market annual income of nearly $4 billion.

The author does not know exactly occupies intelligent mobile phone market at present more than half the market share, Microsoft in the mobile Internet market biggest rivals Google's Android what can earn much money. But before Google chairman Eric Schmidt (Eric Schmidt) had expected future from Android related income will reach $10 billion. This prediction is based on Android mobile phone usage will eventually reach 1 billion department. Google every year from each handset will get an income of $10. Of course schmidt has not specified specific when Google Android mobile phone users arrive 1 billion.

But according to Google latest this year every day the activation Android devices (is not only intelligent mobile phone) in the 1 million department calculation, so this year Google Android will activate 365 million department, or according to the users $10 each calculation, the income should be in the $3.65 billion, less than Microsoft's $4 billion in revenue. But Microsoft own Windows Phone at present market share only hovering around 5%, and the only 1/12 of the Android market share (according to 60% computation) - 1/14 (according to 70% computation), thus it is easy to see, Microsoft in intelligent mobile Phone market profitability is far higher than the Android Google. Of course the profitability both Microsoft own Windows Phone, including the related manufacturers to Android charge of licensing fees. But even if is removed from the Android manufacturers charged licensing fees, according to Microsoft Windows Phone his income 736 million dollars calculation, Google's revenue for Microsoft's five times, but don't forget, Google Android market share is the Microsoft Windows Phone 12-14 times. From this point of view, Microsoft Windows Phone in intelligent mobile Phone market share of around 5% of commercial value than Google's Android.

no sunset industry, only the sunset enterprise

The author remember someone said: no sunset industry, only the sunset enterprise. In fact even in the so-called sunrise industry, also not necessarily is the sunrise of the enterprise. The most typical is the fastest development of intelligent mobile phones and tablet PC market. As is known to all, the two industry at present should be of the most promising, but in intelligent mobile phone market, in addition to apple and samsung, but the rest of the manufacturers are basically in the sustain losses in business make call, some even call all earn not to come. And tablet PC market is a big apple alone.

Investigate its reason, lies in the enterprise in the industry of the strategy to be whether appropriate? Marketing strategy is effective? Product have innovation? More important is for industrial development judgment and prospective. Now back to the PC industry, first of all the author does not think PC industries such as the industry said that at risk, because it is on the increase, but in slow growth. This means that the PC industry competition will be more intense and balance will be more obvious, this time, the related manufacturer's understanding and the strategy is particularly important.

For example when HP, dell entanglement and fluctuating in PC industry still have development prospects and their transformation to where, lenovo but with the industry known as the "defend + attack" double boxing strategy in the PC industry GongChengLveDe, quickly built up in emerging markets, the global consumer and MIDH areas of business scale, keep the rapid growth, but also help them to the mobile Internet in the transformation of the way of walking in the forefront of the opponent.

To sum up, the author thinks that, don't because industry in some manufacturers performance decline and growth slowdown easily conclude that an industrial decline, more can't so and in stray eager to seek sick disorderly TouYi type transformation, and should be rational and comprehensive view industry and yourself, and so as to keep both industry development and transformation of the basis. Like the one the author said, sunset industry, there is also a sunrise of the enterprise; Chaoyang industry, also have the sunset enterprise, and all these changes, totally depends on enterprise's thinking, so, it doesn't matter the sunset industry, only the sunset thinking.


For example, at present the global PC market in

For example, at present the global PC market in the first and third hewlett-packard and dell's revenues and profits are a substantial decline. The HP net loss for 8.9 billion dollars, than the same period last year net profit of $1.9 billion. This is also since HP create since 73 the most serious loss of a quarter. But dell's quarter profit fell 18%, revenue fell 8% amount.

In addition to dell and hewlett-packard (HP) besides, is currently in the global PC market fourth acer's performance is not optimistic. Although in the second quarter of the industry profits, but the nt $56 million ($1.87 million) of the net profit, far below Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and analyst average expected nt $550 million. Bad performance, lead to acer now than the market value of the sales of low 85%, the market value is only $2.4 billion, more than about 75% high slump. The data shows, the current acer market value is only 0.15 times of revenue.

Although hewlett-packard and dell always claimed that he had not the traditional PC manufacturers, and enterprise are transformation, but from the current HP nearly a third revenue from the PC business, dell about half revenue comes from the fact that the PC business, they look is still strong trace PC manufacturers. The author really don't understand why, hewlett-packard and dell to so anxious to and PC manufacturer's name from involvement, murphy PC business really such as external said is into decline and not-for-profit industry?

And the HP, dell and acer, compared to the global PC market ranked the second association of earnings but with these manufacturers presented ice hot between different. Is also in the second quarter, lenovo revenue year-on-year growth of 35%; Net profit year-on-year growth of 30%. According to industry preliminary estimate, lenovo group PC sales rose 24% year-on-year, while lenovo group global market share has reached 15%, and the global PC market gap has less than one percent.

The author thinks that, first is Windows camp a few cooperation partners

The author thinks that, first is Windows camp a few cooperation partners, especially nokia, will be faced with different ecological system the same manufacturer samsung extrusion; The second is Android camp weaker manufacturers, will be ATIV samsung mobile phone series Windows Phone8 eat parts of the market share. In the tablet PC market is also so. To this, maybe someone questioned, samsung ATIV (Microsoft ecological system) and Galaxy (Google Android ecological system) brand will mutual device? The possibility, but it is important to look after samsung in the market marketing how to let the market and the user is very good region division of the two major products brand differentiation demand. But for good at marketing samsung, it should be no problem, such as before the Galaxy Note just listed, the industry a hissing chorus, but samsung through the powerful, precise marketing, finally accomplished the cross-border Phablet of products.

For apple, Google and Microsoft speaking, samsung send force Microsoft ecological system, must be Microsoft's bullish, nokia early not to force, Microsoft's new Windows Phone8 really need like samsung such a strong boost agent. For apple, because Android maximum support person to join Microsoft ecological system, certainly will will cut Android growth momentum, the so-called two dogs strive for a bone, and a third runs away with it. Of course the author in this mean not said Android no longer growth, but Android faction polarization trend will be more obvious, the growth of the Android with Windows Phone8 growth and small partners of sacrifice for a price, the result is very possible is samsung become Android ecological system controller, this may be Google is not willing to see the growth mode and situation.

To sum up, the author thinks that, the industry for samsung in this IFA2012 based on Microsoft released on ecological system ATIV brand strategy should be highly attention, in addition to the above analysis, samsung is currently in Microsoft new Windows8 ecological system only a unified brand through intelligent mobile phone, tablet PC, PC (notebook) end-to-end manufacturers (other mobile phones, flat and PC terminal manufacturers were not do), visible ATIV brand strategy far-reaching and samsung ambitions.

Here, the author is not said the apple and samsung lawsuit is samsung

Here, the author is not said the apple and samsung lawsuit is samsung release ATIV brand of main reason (but there must be catalyst role). After all, as a unified brand to support a ecological system needs deliberation. So samsung is based on how to consideration decided to independent product brand support Microsoft Windows8 ecological system?

Like the the author said, samsung at present both in intelligent mobile phone or tablet PC are already Android ecosystem deserved the boss. Of course, this eldest brother is reflected not only in market share lead the opponents, it is important to revenue and profit with the opponent's gap (Android system other manufacturers are on market share, revenue and falling profits, some even are repeatedly loss), this means that samsung has set up a file in the Android ecological system established their dominant position, and if the future no big surprise, it is difficult to have opponent can shake. Namely samsung in the mobile world market existing two big open system (Google's Android and Microsoft Windows Phone8) has scored a ecological system initiative, even control. The rest of the natural is Microsoft's ecological system.

Although Microsoft Windows Phone ecological system at present and Google than Android, still far away from each other (the ratio of the market share for 1/14), but due to the RIM (independent ecological system) fast falling, Microsoft has become the third largest mobile Internet ecological system is inevitable. In addition, from the earlier nokia and Microsoft's cooperation see, nokia mobile Phone Lumia finalists, despite this, Lumia nokia mobile Phone sales also incredibly occupied the whole Microsoft Windows Phone 57% of the market (more than half), this undoubtedly let samsung see Microsoft ecological system of the potential and nokia in the ecological system papier mache competition ability, also makes the samsung in Microsoft ecological system repeats itself in the Google Android ecosystem supremacy confidence excursion.